US elections

An algorithm for predicting US recessions / stock market crashes (applied to 2018)

1. Is it an election year? Yes.

2. Will a stock market crash help weaken the party that is currently too strong in Congress for the good of the bankers and billionaires? Yes. A crash in 2018 will help make the Republicans look bad, giving Democrats a fighting chance. This will help break Republican power, helping prevent them from having too much power in Congress to pass unfriendly laws.

3. Have the bankers and their friends already cashed out of the stock market? Yes.

Courtesy of Palisade Research.

4. Has the Federal Reserve started to aggressively raise rates and has it started to say that it will continue doing so? Yes.

The red line shows the Federal Reserve raising rates (making it more difficult for businesses to borrow money). The Fed continues to do that until it causes a market crash by making
business impossible. Courtesy of Value Walk

5. Has the mainstream media switched its rhetoric so that it now tells people about the possibility of a market crash (promoting fear, uncertainty and doubt) rather than telling them to continue buying stocks? Yes.

The above is the headline article at MarketWatch on October 30, 2018.

Then a crash is baked in the cake.

The crash that is currently being orchestrated by the Federal Reserve and their banker and billionaire friends is going to be blamed on Trump and his policies. Even though this is unfair, he fully deserves to carry the blame because he was fully willing to take credit for the stock market doing well (when it had nothing to do with his policies). If you take credit for the stock market doing well, don’t be surprised if you are made to take blame for it doing badly.

I do not suggest that the stock market’s future is perfectly deterministic. Ultimately it relies on investor sentiment. If the Fed’s rate raising and the media’s promotion of fear, uncertainty and doubt manage to seriously bias investors against risk-taking, the market will crash.

Update (Nov 7, 2018)

The crash hasn’t materialized as soon as I expected. This could mean that:

  • The powers that be miscalculated how fast investors would panic, so that the crash will now happen after the elections (since fundamentals haven’t changed, the housing market is collapsing as I write this). A crash helps kill a whole lot of birds with one stone, so even if they failed at causing it to happen before the elections, there are still immense profits to be made even if it happens after the elections.
  • Some sort of deal was made between Trump or the Republicans and the bankers to delay the crash.
  • There are other important variables that I have failed to account for.