iPhone

When will the average flagship smartphone have a 5000 mAh battery? Probably around 2029

From 2007 to 2016, the iPhone’s battery grew from 1400 mAh in the first iPhone to 1960 mAh in the iPhone 7 (ignoring the new plus size iPhones). The energy density of lithium ion batteries grows at an exponential rate (5-8% a year), doubling every ten years, according to Tesla’s J.B. Straubel. The iPhone’s battery density growth is lagging this trend probably due to the continuous push for thinner phones.

Using Microsoft Excel’s exponential regression functionality, the following chart forecasts future iPhone battery sizes based on the available historical data, predicting that the small (non-plus) iPhone’s battery capacity will reach 5000 mAh around the year 2036:

Moving on to the more interesting new plus-sized iPhones, Excel cannot do an accurate automatic exponential regression due to the fact that there isn’t enough historical data available on the plus-sized iPhones. By examining the above chart and manually doing the regression using a second series, I found that Excel assumed an approximate rate of growth of 3.81%, and an approximate rate of growth of the rate of growth of 0.09%. Using these same rates on current iPhone Plus battery sizes, we get the following chart:

As it can be seen, around 2024 the iPhone Plus battery size reaches 4000 mAh, and around 2029 it reaches 5000 mAh. If the trend toward ever thinner phones slows, then the 5000 mAh smartphone battery might be achieved at an earlier date. I am hopeful that at least one large manufacturer is brave enough to bet on much larger batteries as a selling point, instead of following Apple’s lead in making things thinner and thinner.

When will smartphones have 1 terabyte of storage? Probably around 2021

While I’m no fan of Apple, the iPhone has so far been the leader in performance and storage. The internal storage of Apple’s latest and greatest iPhone provides a good benchmark for the current level of storage of the entire smartphone industry. When an iPhone with a new level of storage comes out, every manufacturer plays catch-up with Apple releases a flagship phone of similar storage.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in iPhone in internal storage. It extrapolates the trend into the future to predict when the iPhone will likely have one terabyte of internal storage (blue is historical storage levels, orange is predicted, and the dotted line is the trendline):

The chart assumes an exponential trend, since storage density and prices have followed an exponential increase and reduction trend.

I assumed that from 2018 through 2020, the iPhone will stay at 512 GB, similar to how it remained at 64 GB from 2011 through 2013. It is possible that instead of this, the iPhone will stay at 256 GB from 2017 through 2019. This will not significantly affect the historical trend.

Here is the same chart with the forecast extended to 2030. The trendline predicts an internal storage of 5 terabytes in 2027 and 10 terabytes in 2029.

I know that 10 terabytes in a smartphone may seem unnecessarily high. But historical trends show that every age can find good (and frivolous) uses for all the storage it can get.

Below is a table of every iPhone release date, device name, highest offered storage and battery capacity:

Release Date
Device Storage (GB)
Battery (mAh)
June 29, 2007 iPhone 1 16 1400
July 11, 2008 iPhone 3G 16 1150
June 19 2009 iPhone 3GS 32 1219
June 24, 2010 iPhone 4 32 1420
October 14, 2011 iPhone 4S 64 1432
September 21, 2012 iPhone 5 64 1440
September 20, 2013 iPhone 5S 64 1560
September 19, 2014 iPhone 6 128 1810
September 25, 2015 iPhone 6S 128 1715
September 16, 2016 iPhone 7 256 1960